How Civil Wars Start: And How to Stop Them
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- Create Date：2022-01-02 06:51:23
- Update Date：2025-09-06
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- Author：Barbara F. Walter
- ISBN：0593137787
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Summary
Civil wars are the biggest danger to world peace today - this book shows us why they happen， and how to avoid them。
Most of us don't know it， but we are living in the world's greatest era of civil wars。 While violence has declined worldwide， civil wars have increased。 This is a new phenomenon。 With the exception of a handful of cases - the American and English civil wars， the French Revolution - historically it has been rare for people to organise and fight their governments。
This has changed。 Since 1946， over 250 armed conflicts have broken out around the world， a number that continues to rise。 Major civil wars are now being fought in countries including Iraq， Syria and Libya。 Smaller civil wars are being fought in Ukraine， India， and Malaysia。 Even countries we thought could never experience another civil war - such as the USA， Sweden and Ireland - are showing signs of unrest。
In How Civil Wars Start， acclaimed expert Barbara F。 Walter， who has advised on political violence everywhere from the CIA to the U。S。 Senate to the United Nations， explains the rise of civil war and the conditions that create it。 As democracies across the world backslide and citizens become more polarised， civil wars will become even more widespread and last longer than they have in the past。 This urgent and important book shows us a path back toward peace。
Most of us don't know it， but we are living in the world's greatest era of civil wars。 While violence has declined worldwide， civil wars have increased。 This is a new phenomenon。 With the exception of a handful of cases - the American and English civil wars， the French Revolution - historically it has been rare for people to organise and fight their governments。
This has changed。 Since 1946， over 250 armed conflicts have broken out around the world， a number that continues to rise。 Major civil wars are now being fought in countries including Iraq， Syria and Libya。 Smaller civil wars are being fought in Ukraine， India， and Malaysia。 Even countries we thought could never experience another civil war - such as the USA， Sweden and Ireland - are showing signs of unrest。
In How Civil Wars Start， acclaimed expert Barbara F。 Walter， who has advised on political violence everywhere from the CIA to the U。S。 Senate to the United Nations， explains the rise of civil war and the conditions that create it。 As democracies across the world backslide and citizens become more polarised， civil wars will become even more widespread and last longer than they have in the past。 This urgent and important book shows us a path back toward peace。
Reviews
Jenel
，
Dana Milbank's Op Ed in December 2021 prompted me to add this book to my list。 "If you know people still in denial about the crisis of American democracy， kindly remove their heads from the sand long enough to receive this message: A startling new finding by one of the nation’s top authorities on foreign civil wars says we are on the cusp of our own。Barbara F。 Walter， a political science professor at the University of California at San Diego， serves on a CIA advisory panel called the Political I Dana Milbank's Op Ed in December 2021 prompted me to add this book to my list。 "If you know people still in denial about the crisis of American democracy， kindly remove their heads from the sand long enough to receive this message: A startling new finding by one of the nation’s top authorities on foreign civil wars says we are on the cusp of our own。Barbara F。 Walter， a political science professor at the University of California at San Diego， serves on a CIA advisory panel called the Political Instability Task Force that monitors countries around the world and predicts which of them are most at risk of deteriorating into violence。 By law， the task force can’t assess what’s happening within the United States， but Walter， a longtime friend who has spent her career studying conflicts in Syria， Lebanon， Northern Ireland， Sri Lanka， the Philippines， Rwanda， Angola， Nicaragua and elsewhere， applied the predictive techniques herself to this country。Her bottom line: “We are closer to civil war than any of us would like to believe。” She lays out the argument in detail in her must-read book， “How Civil Wars Start，” out in January。 “No one wants to believe that their beloved democracy is in decline， or headed toward war，” she writes。 But， “if you were an analyst in a foreign country looking at events in America — the same way you’d look at events in Ukraine or the Ivory Coast or Venezuela — you would go down a checklist， assessing each of the conditions that make civil war likely。 And what you would find is that the United States， a democracy founded more than two centuries ago， has entered very dangerous territory。”Indeed， the United States has already gone through what the CIA identifies as the first two phases of insurgency — the “pre-insurgency” and “incipient conflict” phases — and only time will tell whether the final phase， “open insurgency，” began with the sacking of the Capitol by Donald Trump supporters on Jan。 6。Things deteriorated so dramatically under Trump， in fact， that the United States no longer technically qualifies as a democracy。 Citing the Center for Systemic Peace’s “Polity” data set — the one the CIA task force has found to be most helpful in predicting instability and violence — Walter writes that the United States is now an “anocracy，” somewhere between a democracy and an autocratic state。U。S。 democracy had received the Polity index’s top score of 10， or close to it， for much of its history。 But in the five years of the Trump era， it tumbled precipitously into the anocracy zone; by the end of his presidency， the U。S。 score had fallen to a 5， making the country a partial democracy for the first time since 1800。 “We are no longer the world’s oldest continuous democracy，” Walter writes。 “That honor is now held by Switzerland， followed by New Zealand， and then Canada。 We are no longer a peer to nations like Canada， Costa Rica， and Japan， which are all rated a +10 on the Polity index。”Dropping five points in five years greatly increases the risk of civil war （six points in three years would qualify as “high risk” of civil war）。 “A partial democracy is three times as likely to experience civil war as a full democracy，” Walter writes。 “A country standing on this threshold — as America is now， at +5 — can easily be pushed toward conflict through a combination of bad governance and increasingly undemocratic measures that further weaken its institutions。”Others have reached similar findings。 The Stockholm-based International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance put the United States on a list of “backsliding democracies” in a report last month。 “The United States， the bastion of global democracy， fell victim to authoritarian tendencies itself，" the report said。 And a new survey by the academic consortium Bright Line Watch found that 17 percent of those who identify strongly as Republicans support the use of violence to restore Trump to power， and 39 percent favor doing everything possible to prevent Democrats from governing effectively。The question now is whether we can pull back from the abyss Trump’s Republicans have led us to。 There is no more important issue; democracy is the foundation of everything else in America。 Democrats， in a nod to this reality， are talking about abandoning President Biden’s Build Back Better agenda in favor of pro-democracy voting rights legislation。 Republicans will fight it tooth and nail。https://www。washingtonpost。com/opinio。。。 。。。more
Courtney
，
This was well put together and eloquently worded， but there is a clear bias throughout， and while I am mostly on the side of the favoured bias， it's still worth noting that key points are left out， thus making this very commentary an example of that unobjective villifying if the "other" as a means to further divide。 I still very much recommend this， though， because the author is makes a daunting and discomforting subject accessible without making light， and points that are addressed are an excel This was well put together and eloquently worded， but there is a clear bias throughout， and while I am mostly on the side of the favoured bias， it's still worth noting that key points are left out， thus making this very commentary an example of that unobjective villifying if the "other" as a means to further divide。 I still very much recommend this， though， because the author is makes a daunting and discomforting subject accessible without making light， and points that are addressed are an excellent dissection of a sense of something ominous that many of us are experiencing but can't quite put to words。 。。。more
Angie Boyter
，
3+/4- A truly scary discussion of the risk factors that lead to civil wars and how to avoid or correct themAs someone who has been paying attention to the news for the past few years， I welcomed this book by a respected political scientist whose specialty is civil wars， hopefully to allay my unease about my country today （I wish！） or at least to give advice on how to avoid further decline of civility and possible civil war。 The first part of the book explores worldwide what conditions exist in c 3+/4- A truly scary discussion of the risk factors that lead to civil wars and how to avoid or correct themAs someone who has been paying attention to the news for the past few years， I welcomed this book by a respected political scientist whose specialty is civil wars， hopefully to allay my unease about my country today （I wish！） or at least to give advice on how to avoid further decline of civility and possible civil war。 The first part of the book explores worldwide what conditions exist in countries where civil wars arise， with an emphasis on the twentieth century。 This is an excellent exposition， especially the discussion of communist or communist-leaning countries during the Cold War and the differences among them， nuances that were not brought out by the news during that period。 Central to this section of the book is the concept of anocracies， which “are neither full autocracies nor democracies but something in between”。 The author uses the Polity Score， a measure that employs thirty-eight variables to measure how democratic or autocratic a country is at any given time on a 21-point scale from -10 to +10。 Anocracies score between -5 and +5。 It was rather shocking to find that the US does not rank as high as I believe most Americans would expect。 Not surprisingly， anocracies are the most fertile grounds for civil uprising。 A particular factor present when civil wars occur is factionalism， in which political parties break down along ethnic or religious identity rather than political ideology。 As many as 75 percent of the civil wars since the end of the Cold War were brought about by such factions。Walter also points out how civil unrest in the twentieth century differed from the past， especially the role of social media。 After this excellent， albeit disturbing， presentation of the factors present during civil unrest， the second half of the book opens with the chapter “How Close Are We？”。 Pretty close， Walter argues， quite convincingly。 She goes on to make recommendations on how we can prevent it from happening here。 This part of the book I found less satisfactory， partly because if the answers were easy there would likely not be so many civil wars but especially because her political views intrude excessively。 For example， she calls for more gun control， more federal involvement instead of state control over many items， and limits on free speech in social media。 There is little or no suggestion to look at what legitimate concerns might exist that extremists can tap into if the authorities pay no attention to them。 So the book ended on a down note for me， but the first half is definitely worth your attention。 If we wake up to the danger and work together despite our political leanings， religion， or ethnicity， we CAN preserve democracy and， as Walter says “live up to our founding motto---E Pluribus Unum---…[and] become one。”I received an advance review copy of this book from NetGalley and the publisher。 。。。more
J Earl
，
How Civil Wars Start by Barbara F Walter is essential reading for anyone who has the uneasy feeling that we might be approaching a civil war but can't put their finger on how or why。 Admittedly some readers， those who support the recent coup attempt， will feel their side has been "unjustly" singled out。 And for some readers in the US their warped sense of exceptionalism will let them dismiss the entire field as not being applicable here。 But for those of us who actually care about trying to make How Civil Wars Start by Barbara F Walter is essential reading for anyone who has the uneasy feeling that we might be approaching a civil war but can't put their finger on how or why。 Admittedly some readers， those who support the recent coup attempt， will feel their side has been "unjustly" singled out。 And for some readers in the US their warped sense of exceptionalism will let them dismiss the entire field as not being applicable here。 But for those of us who actually care about trying to make the democracy better rather than destroy it， the warning signs are made crystal clear and some prescriptive suggestions are offered for avoiding it。I'm not sure I can accurately summarize the many aspects of what can make a society or a government ripe for civil war so I won't try。 I can say that for every example she cites from other civil wars she boils the essence of what happened down so we can see where the similarities are in our own country。 That is， if one is open to trying to stop the civil war and not on the side of overthrowing democracy in the country。I found most of her prescriptive ideas valuable， especially the ones related to the form of government， namely the electoral college （get rid of it， it has outlasted its purpose） and the Senate。 A couple of the social media-based ideas are a little more problematic for me。 I don't disagree with all of it but would want to see a detailed concept before getting on board with too much banning of speech， though I have no problem banning things that are demonstrably false being promoted as true。Highly recommended and a good starting point for both understanding and beginning to take steps to thwart the current attempts to overthrow democracy。Reviewed from a copy made available by the publisher via NetGalley。 。。。more
Ron Frampton
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